Nonlinear Filtering and Control

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1: Proceedings of CDC2000
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Mobile Robots: Tracking Control
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Author Index
A B C D E F G H I
J K L M N O P Q R
S T U V W X Y Z

Tracking Volatility

Authors:

Jaksa Cvitanić, Robert S. Liptser, Boris Rozovskii,

Volume: 1, Page 1189 Paper number 3801

Abstract:

This paper is concerned with nonlinear filtering of the volatility coefficient in a Black-Scholes type model that allows stochastic volatility. The stochastic volatility is modeled as a nonnegative function of a homogeneous Markov jump process. Following to Frey and Runggaldier, we assume that the asset price is measured only at random times. This assumption is designed to reflect the discrete nature of high frequency financial data (e.g. tick-by-tick stock prices). In the above setting the problem of volatility estimation is reduced naturally to a nonlinear filtering problem. We remark that while quite natural, the latter problem does not fit into the ''standard'' framework and requires new technical tools. In this paper, we derive a mean-square optimal recursive Bayesian filter for the volatility process. In particular, we derive Duncan-Mortensen-Zakai and Wonham-Kushner type equations for posterior distributions of the volatility process.

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Convergence and Error Analysis for a Max-Plus Algorithm

Authors:

William M. McEneaney,

Volume: 1, Page 1194 Paper number 3803

Abstract:

We consider max-plus based algorithms for the solution of nonlinear H-infinity problems. This class of algorithms has been described for several problem types such as nonlinear H-infinity filtering, nonlinear H-infinity control and nonlinear H-infinity control under partial information. Previous treatments have been oriented towards the general introduction of the algorithms. It has been noted that the corresponding convergence analysis was lacking in those papers. Here we demonstrate, in the case of nonlinear H-infinity control, that the errors introduced by the truncation to a finite number of max-plus basis functions go to zero as the number of basis functions increases. Some error bounds are also obtained.

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Efficient Particle Methods for Residual Generation in Partially Observed SDE's

Authors:

Frédéric Cérou, François LeGland,

Volume: 1, Page 1200 Paper number 3804

Abstract:

In this paper, the problem of detecting a change in the drift coefficient of a partially observed stochastic differential equation is addressed. The score function, evaluated at the nominal value, is used as the residual, and only the problem of residual generation is considered. In the special case where the drift coefficient depends on the parameter only in directions that are affected by nondegenerate noise, an efficient numerical approximation of the residual is proposed, using particle filters. The more complicated problem of residual evaluation will be considered elsewhere, under the small noise asymptotics.

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Risk-Sensitive Potfolio Optimization With Partial Information

Authors:

Hideo Nagai,

Volume: 1, Page 1206 Paper number 3805

Abstract:

We shall show some results applying risk-sensitive control with partial observation to mathematical finance, discussing portofolio optimization problems for factor models recently treated by Bielecki and Pliska(1999). They have formulated the factor models where securities prices are governed by the stochastic differential equations like geometric Brownian motion processes, whose drift coefficients (indicating expected growth rate in the case of geometric B.M.) are affine functions of the underlying economic factors such as price-earning ratios, short term interest rates, dividend yields, and macroeconomic measures and diffusion coefficients are constant indicating volatility of the securities. The set of such securities may include stocks, bonds, cash, and derivative securities. On the other hand the factors are assumed to be governed by the stochastic differential equations with linear drift coefficients. Then they consider the problem maximizing the risk-sensitized long run expected growth rate of capital value which the investor possesses by taking a portfolio strategy among the above defined securities. Representing the maximum as the function of the initial values of the factors and the value process, they introduce a Belleman equation of ergodic type. By using the solution of the Bellman equation they construct an optimal strategy. In their case the admissible investment strategies have been considered to be selected by using past informations of the securities to invest and also the factors. In the present paper we shall discuss similar problems to Bielecki and Pliska's, taking up such factor models and considering the optimization problems on finite time horizon. However, in our setting, our admissible strategies are considered to be chosen by using only past informations of securities to invest. We shall formulate our problems as risk-sensitive control problems of partially observable systems by regarding the factors as the system processes and the logarithm of securities prices as the observation processes and then obtain optimal strategies for the control problems having explicit representation by the solutions of ordinary differential equations and the ones of stochastic differential equations. Indeed we shall first express our criterion function by using the solution of a modified Zakai equation. Then, after giving the solution an explicit representation by means of the solution of a matrix Riccati differential equation and the one of a finite dimensional stochastic differential equation, we shall show the optimal strategy can be explicitly represented by the solutions and the ones of other three kinds of ordinary differential equations. We note that our results relate to Bensoussan and Van Schuppen's work (1985) having discussed the LEQG problem of a partially observable system. Difference from the work lies in that our noises are correlated and the performance index includes a stochastic integral.

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Discrete-Time Linear Filtering in Arbitrary Noise

Authors:

X. Rong Li, Chongzhao Han, Jie Wang,

Volume: 1, Page 1212 Paper number 3806

Abstract:

The Kalman filter is a recursive Best Linear Unbiased Estimator (BLUE) for a linear dynamic system with uncorrelated white process and measurement noises. It has been extended to the case where the noises are Markov and/or crosscorrelated for the same time instant. This paper presents optimal batch and semi-recursive filters and a suboptimal recursive filter for a linear discrete-time system with arbitrarily colored (not necessarily Markov) noises that are arbitrarily cross-correlated and correlated with the initial state of the system. They are generalizations of the Kalman filter for the case of arbitrary additive noise of known first two moments. Numerical examples are provided. They demonstrate the superiority in terms of performance and efficiency of the proposed recursive filter.

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Gaussian Filter for Nonlinear Filtering Problems

Authors:

Kazufumi Ito,

Volume: 1, Page 1218 Paper number 3807

Abstract:

In this paper we develop and analyze real-time and accurate filters for nonlinear filtering problems based on the Gaussian distributions. We present the systematic formulation of Gaussian filters and develop efficient and accurate numerical integration of the proposed filter. We also discuss the mixed Gaussian filters in which the conditional probability density is approximated by the sum of Gaussian distributions. Our numerical testings demonstrate that new filters significantly improve the extended Kalman filter with no additional cost and the new Gaussian sum filter has a nearly optimal performance.

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